The Atlantic Basin has a 55% chance of experiencing a below-normal hurricane season this year, the US forecasting agency estimates.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration National Weather Service predicts eight to 14 named storms; of those, three to six are forecast to become hurricanes, including one to three that may be major hurricanes of at least category 3 intensity.

An average season has 14 named storms with seven hurricanes, including three of major strength.

An expected El Nino may create conditions that support fewer tropical storms and hurricanes, but this could be offset by warmer Atlantic Ocean temperatures, which are associated with more active years.

“Although El Nino’s impact in the Atlantic Basin can often suppress hurricane development, there is still uncertainty in how each season will unfold,” National Weather Service director Ken Graham said.

The service says there is a 35% chance of near-normal activity and a 10% chance of above-normal activity for the season, which runs from June 1 to November 30.

Colorado State University hurricane researchers have also predicted a “somewhat below-average” season in an initial forecast that will be updated next week.