An El Nino under way in the tropical Pacific Ocean is likely to strengthen and continue until at least the end of the year, the Bureau of Meteorology says.

The events often bring drier conditions to central and eastern Australia in winter and spring, but the bureau says other factors play a part and outcomes vary.

“The strength of the event doesn’t always match the strength of its impact in Australia. A weaker event can have major effects, while a stronger one may not,” it said.

The bureau made its El Nino declaration last week based on ocean and atmosphere indicators, after US forecasters – who use different thresholds – warned this year’s event could be one of the strongest on record.

The bureau says all models forecast the tropical Pacific will continue warming in coming months and atmospheric indicators such as trade winds, pressure and cloud patterns are showing signs consistent with an El Nino.

Its long-range forecast for July to September flags an increased chance of unusually low rainfall across parts of southwest WA and southeast Australia.

There is also an increased chance of unusually high maximum temperatures across much of eastern and western Australia, with the highest chances across western parts of WA, eastern NSW, Victoria and Tasmania.

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