An Indian Ocean climate driver has moved into positive territory, potentially reinforcing the influence of a strengthening El Nino, and the Bureau of Meteorology’s three-month outlook shows above-average maximum temperatures are very likely across almost all of Australia.

The Indian Ocean Dipole positive phase often leads to lower rainfall and higher than normal temperatures in parts of the country, and is associated with increased fire risk in the southeast. The positive event may continue until early summer, the bureau said in its update last week.

A Pacific Ocean El Nino has strengthened and a relative sea surface temperature indicator is forecast to top the highest levels since reliable records began in 1950, but the bureau says the event does not necessarily mean strong impacts on Australian rainfall and temperature.

The climate driver shifts come after October was wetter than average across most of the mainland. Tasmania has experienced dry conditions and Hobart recorded two consecutive days above 30 degrees for the first time in an October.

“Wetter than average conditions are forecast to continue across large parts of Australia, while reduced rainfall is more likely for some southeastern areas,” bureau hydrologist David Wilson said in the three-month outlook. 

For Tasmania, small parts of southern Victoria and much of the tropical far northern coastline, there is a 60%-80% chance of below-average November-January rainfall.

The bureau sees a greater than 80% chance of above-average maximum temperatures across most of the country, with Tasmania among regions with a 70% chance of unusually high maximums.