Growth will become harder to sustain for insurers and technology, talent, capital deployment and portfolio management will be crucial “rather than favourable market conditions alone”, Aon says.

The broker’s analysis of 120 global general insurers’ performance found premium growth declined for a fourth straight year in 2025, to 5.2% – below the decade average and less than half the growth in 2021.

Meanwhile, underwriting performance was at a decade high, with the combined operating ratio improving to 91.1% and return on average equity at 17%, the highest since Aon began tracking the cohort in 2009.

“The gap between growth and profitability continues to widen, creating a markedly different operating environment from earlier in the cycle,” Aon said.

“The hard market rewarded many different strategies. The next phase of the cycle will be less forgiving. The insurers that outperform are likely to be those that combine disciplined growth choices with relentless execution.”

Aon advises insurers not to chase premium growth “at any cost”. Profitable growth will increasingly depend on where insurers choose to compete and how effectively they deploy capital, underwriting expertise and distribution capabilities, it says.

“Future leaders are likely to be more selective, prioritising opportunities that combine profitability, resilience and differentiated client relevance.”

Fewer insurers improved returns last year, suggesting performance is becoming increasingly differentiated across the market.

Leaders should focus on areas of genuine competitive advantage, and opportunities where the organisation “has a clear opportunity to win and where resilience, relevance and profitability reinforce one another”.

Aon also warns against underinvesting in staff and technology and “letting AI become someone else’s advantage”.

“As favourable market conditions fade, outperformance will depend on avoiding the pitfalls that erode value – such as overestimating growth, misallocating capital and failing to make effective use of AI – while making better decisions on growth and capital.”

See the report here.